{"id":10300,"date":"2020-05-05T09:48:47","date_gmt":"2020-05-05T07:48:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/?p=10300"},"modified":"2021-09-28T17:55:13","modified_gmt":"2021-09-28T15:55:13","slug":"the-survival-test","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/es\/the-survival-test\/","title":{"rendered":"The survival test"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-8vgb1o-6917258f33da21f07e60183664e54de0\">\n.flex_column.av-8vgb1o-6917258f33da21f07e60183664e54de0{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-8vgb1o-6917258f33da21f07e60183664e54de0 av_one_fifth  avia-builder-el-0  el_before_av_three_fifth  avia-builder-el-first  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding '     ><style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" 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srcset=\"https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/AvS_underPressure_300x300_rund.png 300w, https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/AvS_underPressure_300x300_rund-80x80.png 80w, https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/AvS_underPressure_300x300_rund-36x36.png 36w, https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/AvS_underPressure_300x300_rund-180x180.png 180w, https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/AvS_underPressure_300x300_rund-185x185.png 185w, https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/AvS_underPressure_300x300_rund-120x120.png 120w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-7ldcto-9f1016c7c66bb4ad71a854dcaae0ea63\">\n.flex_column.av-7ldcto-9f1016c7c66bb4ad71a854dcaae0ea63{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-7ldcto-9f1016c7c66bb4ad71a854dcaae0ea63 av_three_fifth  avia-builder-el-2  el_after_av_one_fifth  el_before_av_one_fifth  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding '     ><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-ka537egk-95af9d31d452456cb9c1f7560be78819\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-ka537egk-95af9d31d452456cb9c1f7560be78819{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-ka537egk-95af9d31d452456cb9c1f7560be78819 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-ka537egk-95af9d31d452456cb9c1f7560be78819 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-ka537egk-95af9d31d452456cb9c1f7560be78819 av-special-heading-h1 blockquote modern-quote  avia-builder-el-3  el_before_av_font_icon  avia-builder-el-first '><h1 class='av-special-heading-tag'  itemprop=\"headline\"  >The survival test<\/h1><div class='av-subheading av-subheading_below'><p>Family Businesses in the eye of the storm (1)<br \/>\nAn international survey<\/p>\n<\/div><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-k61yt6pc-4b3d0b31c33d1ba5940ad0ea1382b06a\">\n.av_font_icon.av-k61yt6pc-4b3d0b31c33d1ba5940ad0ea1382b06a .av-icon-char{\nfont-size:40px;\nline-height:40px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<span  class='av_font_icon av-k61yt6pc-4b3d0b31c33d1ba5940ad0ea1382b06a avia_animate_when_visible av-icon-style- avia-icon-pos-left av-no-color avia-icon-animate'><span class='av-icon-char' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue819' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello' ><\/span><\/span><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-k61ywyoh-aa80164a0bbcfe1a68ac25d8daf20471'  itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p>Over the past weeks we constantly asked ourselves: How is the pandemic affecting Family Businesses (\u2018FBs\u2019)? The picture is quite varied and nuanced, with wide disparities according to geography, industry sector, sales channel, and whether a company is designated by governments as &#8216;system critical&#8217; or not. It is important to recognise also that the effects of the crisis are evolving over time \u2013 as the CEO of an international FMCG company summarised: \u201cIn the beginning, the challenge was with the supply side. In the future, the challenge will be what happens with consumer demand and confidence.\u201d Below, we list some of the main issues currently affecting FBs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Uncertainty<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Overhanging most of these businesses is the pervading air of volatility and \u201ccomplete unpredictability\u201d. While governments in many countries are now revealing their plans for a phased end to the national lockdowns, there is an alphabet soup of theories as to if, when and how normality will return (V-curve? U-curve? L-curve?). Forward planning in these times can feel like \u201cguesswork\u201d and many CEOs are plotting their actions versus multiple potential scenarios (\u201cbest case, base case, worst case\u201d).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Physical Health &amp; Safety<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In terms of the direct impact on the health of employees, while some companies, e.g. in Switzerland and parts of Germany, have experienced only low infection rates and few hospitalisations, others headquartered in virus hotspots such as Northern Italy have seen large swathes of their workforce side-lined. One Italian business has had to cope with a situation in which 40% of employees at its main site contracted the virus; worse still, the local society, with a high age demographic, has witnessed a shocking death toll \u2013 \u201calmost everyone\u201d has lost family members or friends. In the plants, new safety measures and shift patterns have had to be rapidly conceived and introduced.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mental Welfare<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Closely linked to ensuring physical security, bolstering the mental health of employees has also become of critical importance. \u201cThere is a big need for handholding\u201d said one CEO. A (female) business owner related how one of her biggest challenges is \u201ckeeping everyone happy while domestic problems are bubbling up and people talk to me more now\u201d. \u201cI am encouraging men to open up and talk! Psychological needs and fears have to be addressed.\u201d There is an apparent need for FB owners to connect on a personal level to their workers; \u201cthere hasn\u2019t been a time that I can recall where I have asked as much about the well-being of parents, grand-parents and, of course, children of our employees \u2013 after all, we are all one big family!\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Loss of Key Workers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Following on from the above two challenges, a notable trend among some FBs has been a debilitating unavailability of \u2018key workers\u2019 for weeks at a time. A number of company leaders told us how the virus had highlighted an (over-) dependency on individuals who are \u2013 at least in the short-term \u2013 irreplaceable because they are the only ones who, for instance, possess a specific technical knowledge or personally handle an important customer relationship. While big corporates typically have detailed talent development policies and their top leaders have numerous of deputies who can step in, mid-sized FBs often have no \u201cback-ups\u201d in place. In many cases, this is because of both a lack of strength-in-depth talent, and also because the key workers are long-time and loyal employees expected to stay at the company until retirement.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Declining Sales<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Estimates of the impact of the crisis on sales vary hugely according to sector and distribution channel. A number of family businesses operating, for instance, in the packaged food and medical technology segments, have actually benefitted from a significant uplift in sales over the past two months driven by consumer panic buying or government healthcare purchasing. Even private banks have seen trading volumes increase thanks to increased stock-picking activities and more active portfolio management. However, the vast majority of companies in e.g. the industrial, consumer durables, automotive, transportation, leisure and hospitality sectors have seen drastic sales declines \u2013 sometimes on an unprecedented level in terms of the rapidity of the collapse in demand. A CEO of an automotive supplier predicted his business would suffer a drop in sales of -80% in April and May, and a fall of -40% for 2020. Another CEO, this time in the consumer durables sector, highlighted how variable the impact was according to the distribution channel \u2013 a decline in sales of 40% via electrical retail chains in March and April being partially offset by an impressive +270% sales boost via the internet.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Liquidity<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For most FBs in this period, as for corporates generally, cash management is a top priority. However, what is striking is how many FBs do not have cash flow issues, are unburdened by heavy debt and describe their overall financial standing as \u201csolid\u201d. In this dimension \u2013 and while several owners did complain about \u201cvery cautious\u201d or \u201cunhelpful\u201d banks unwilling to extend loans, or late payments by customers (\u201csome customers in Italy told us they want to delay payments by six months!\u201d) \u2013 most FBs we surveyed seem relatively well positioned to survive this crisis. [We will return to the reasons for this crucial differentiator of FBs in the 4<sup>th<\/sup> article based on our survey to be published shortly.]<\/p>\n<p><strong>Disruption of Supply<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Many supply chains \u2013 often global, complex, operated on a just-in-time basis \u2013 have been seriously disrupted by numerous factors including plant shut-downs, cross-border workers not being able to commute, and see-sawing availability and price of commodities. Logistics companies dealing with the supply of critically important medical products to hospitals, or of consumer goods purchased online by suddenly house-bound consumers, have been overwhelmed by rocketing orders.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dependency on China<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Linked to the above, but specifically an issue for many companies due to its outsized importance, is China. A large majority of interviewees mentioned the country in one context or another, and almost all have faced problems during the first quarter either because they depend on supplies coming from China or because they depend on demand coming from China.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 4%;\">However, overall, and while respondents are deeply conscious of their burdens and responsibilities, we have noted a greater sense of optimism than we expected. We were pleasantly surprised by the feelings of determination and confidence voiced by interviewees. In the next two articles based on our survey, we will dig further into this mindset and examine the concrete measures FB leaders have already put in place, and where they see opportunities for future development.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n<div  class='avia-buttonrow-wrap av-k61ze9w6-f76018f3fb98b17a0aff0b6ac95eb808 avia-buttonrow-right  avia-builder-el-6  el_after_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-last '>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-15tvwbg-224658d1e21ebffccef4014735829951\">\n#top #wrap_all .avia-button.av-15tvwbg-224658d1e21ebffccef4014735829951{\nmargin-bottom:10px;\nmargin-left:10px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<a href='https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/es\/trustedadvisor\/'  class='avia-button av-15tvwbg-224658d1e21ebffccef4014735829951 avia-icon_select-yes-left-icon avia-size-small avia-color-theme-color'  ><span class='avia_button_icon avia_button_icon_left ' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue830' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello'><\/span><span class='avia_iconbox_title' >Back<\/span><\/a>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-o31s7w-e7d00ece69a841ab095bf8c894945fd7\">\n#top #wrap_all .avia-button.av-o31s7w-e7d00ece69a841ab095bf8c894945fd7{\nmargin-bottom:10px;\nmargin-left:10px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<a href='https:\/\/avs-advisors.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/TTA_2020_02_The_Survival_Test_EN.pdf' class='avia-button av-o31s7w-e7d00ece69a841ab095bf8c894945fd7 avia-icon_select-yes-left-icon avia-size-small avia-color-theme-color' target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><span class='avia_button_icon avia_button_icon_left ' aria-hidden='true' data-av_icon='\ue82d' data-av_iconfont='entypo-fontello'><\/span><span class='avia_iconbox_title' >Download as PDF<\/span><\/a>\n<\/div><\/p><\/div>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-2a6n1o-6aeba8d515cc66995d2ad0cbef497f1c\">\n.flex_column.av-2a6n1o-6aeba8d515cc66995d2ad0cbef497f1c{\n-webkit-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n-moz-border-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div class='flex_column av-2a6n1o-6aeba8d515cc66995d2ad0cbef497f1c av_one_fifth  avia-builder-el-7  el_after_av_three_fifth  avia-builder-el-last  flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding '     ><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":10292,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[54],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.6 - 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